A free Iran is their shared dream. But the diaspora remains torn on the best path forward
Los Angeles has become a microcosm of the Iranian diaspora’s internal conflict. Last Saturday, demonstrators gathered near City Hall, decrying the onset of an unsanctioned war with chants like “Stop the war in Iran” and “We the people don’t want war.” Just a few miles away, in Tehrangeles, the same community celebrated what they saw as a potential turning point for their homeland. With American, Israeli, and Iranian flags waving, they danced to upbeat music and rejoiced at the news of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death in a U.S.-Israeli strike.
The emotional split within the Iranian diaspora has deepened in recent days, highlighting a stark divide among those who fled theocratic rule after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. “Some are so resentful of the regime that they’d support its destruction even if it means harming parts of the country,” noted Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. Others, however, prioritize stability over conflict, advocating for regime change without sacrificing peace.
“The images of destruction and the joyous support for war have intensified tensions within the diaspora,” Milani added. “It will get harder before it resolves.”
Earlier this year, the Iranian diaspora seemed more unified, rallying behind Iranians protesting the government’s harsh crackdown. Now, with violence escalating across the Middle East, the focus has shifted to debating the methods of achieving change. Online forums have become battlegrounds, with supporters of military action branded as “Zionists” — a term increasingly used as a derogatory label since the Hamas attacks on Israel in October 2023. Anti-war advocates, meanwhile, face accusations of aligning with the regime.
Amid this turmoil, the question of Iran’s future leadership has sparked heated discussions. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last shah, is a favored candidate for some, while others question his ties to the monarchy. The Revolutionary Guard, a central pillar of Iran’s political and military power, is also seen as a key player in shaping the country’s direction if it endures the current crisis.
As the death toll mounts and the government imposes an internet blackout, the Iranian diaspora grapples with isolation and uncertainty. The Persian New Year, Nowruz, approaches, traditionally a time of renewal and celebration. Yet, rumors of Mojtaba Khamenei, Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, succeeding him add to the anxiety. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump has suggested removing Iran’s leadership entirely, hinting at potential successors.
Public opinion in the U.S. reflects this divide. A recent NBC News poll revealed 54% of potential voters disapprove of Trump’s military approach in Iran. This mirrors the internal split among Iranian Americans, who were previously united in opposing the government’s actions. Last year, a NIAC-YouGov survey found 53% of diaspora members opposed U.S. military intervention, a figure that may shift as the conflict evolves.
The Iranian Diaspora Collective, an Instagram account with over 81,000 followers, emphasized this diversity: “We are not a monolith. Millions will never share the same ideology or identity, and that plurality is the strength of any free society.” Los Angeles-based pastor Ara Torosian, a Christian who emigrated from Iran in 2010, expressed anguish over the destruction of cultural sites and the loss of innocent lives, particularly children. Yet he argued that the suffering endured by dissidents under the regime is now being matched by the current conflict.
