Iran Strait of Hormuz warning adds to shipping uncertainty
Iran’s naval forces have issued a caution to vessels in the Gulf, stating that any ships attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz without prior approval will face interception and potential damage. This confirmation comes from SSY, a shipping brokerage firm, which shared the alert with BBC Verify.
Ceasefire agreement raises cautious optimism
A two-week ceasefire was established on Tuesday evening, contingent on ensuring “safe passage” through the strait. However, the initial results have been modest, with only a handful of vessels crossing the waterway since the deal was announced. BBC Verify’s analysis of tracking data from MarineTraffic reveals that just three bulk carriers—NJ Earth, Daytona Beach, and Hai Long 1—passed through the strait by 14:00 BST on 8 April.
Before the conflict began on 28 February, an average of 138 ships traversed the strait daily. Now, with the ceasefire in place, analysts remain skeptical about a significant increase in crossings, citing lingering doubts about operational clarity.
Strait’s strategic importance remains critical
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital 33km-wide channel, serves as a key artery for global trade. It transports roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas, making it a central point in the US-Israel conflict with Iran. The recent disruptions have already strained international supply chains, affecting industries reliant on chemicals for products like microchips, fertilizers, and pharmaceuticals.
Analysts suggest the initial crossings might reflect either the ceasefire’s influence or prearranged exceptions. “It is still too soon to tell whether this reflects a broader ceasefire-driven reopening or a previously approved exception,” says Ana Subasic of Kpler, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the situation.
Operators hesitant to resume full traffic
“Most shipping lines would want to get details and reassurances on what it actually takes to transit and those details are not available,” Lars Jensen from Vespucci Maritime told the BBC.
Jensen adds that crews are still cautious, with confidence in safe passage taking time to build. Richard Meade of Lloyd’s List echoes this, noting the strait remains “very dangerous” for ship owners amid ongoing ambiguity. “The assumption is that ship owners will still need to seek permission from the IRGC… and how that’s going to work is still not clear,” he explains.
Analysts also point to the possibility of sea mines as a lingering threat. “We need to make sure that we have clear confirmation that the safety of navigation for the ships and the seafarers are being agreed,” says Thomas Kazakos of the International Chamber of Shipping.
Tolls and sanctions add to complexity
Another layer of uncertainty involves tolls for passage, as reports suggest payments could be part of the ceasefire arrangement. “The Iranian negotiation position seems to be that you need to pay a toll to go through the strait,” Jensen notes, emphasizing that shipping lines may be wary of such costs.
Some nations, including India, Malaysia, and the Philippines, have secured safe passage agreements. However, the risk of violating US sanctions on Iran could complicate matters for others. “If tolls are required, it might actually be in violation of some of the US sanctions on Iran which would have other repercussions on shipping lines,” adds Jensen.
Meade anticipates that fully loaded tankers will likely be the first to resume crossings, as they are most vulnerable to delays. “You’ve had nearly 800 ships stuck in there for several weeks… the priority is going to be to get them out,” he says. Yet, the two-week ceasefire period may limit immediate confidence, with analysts doubting a swift return to normal operations.
