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Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play

Lebanon Engages Israel in Discussions Amid Persistent Conflict

Last month, President Joseph Aoun hosted a meeting at Baabda Palace, a modernist structure atop a hill overlooking Beirut. The session took place as Lebanon faced renewed violence, with Aoun, a retired military leader, seeking to address the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. This conflict, which erupted in November 2024, had left Hezbollah weakened and isolated domestically. Aoun, who took office in its aftermath, had pledged to dismantle the militia’s arsenal, a goal he believed could be achieved through dialogue.

Hezbollah’s Role in Lebanese Politics and Society

Founded in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, Hezbollah has evolved into a multifaceted entity. It operates as both a political party and a social movement, providing essential services in regions where the state’s presence is lacking. Despite being designated a terrorist group by nations like the UK and the US, Hezbollah holds significant sway in Lebanon’s government and parliament. Its armed wing remains a central part of the country’s power structure, even as tensions with Israel escalate.

Aoun’s Strategy and the Ceasefire Dilemma

Aoun’s administration has championed the “state monopoly on arms,” aiming to assert control over Lebanon’s military resources. However, Hezbollah’s refusal to relinquish its weapons has complicated efforts. Aoun warned that unilateral disarmament could reignite violence, stating,

“We can’t let the country descend into another civil war.”

The current ceasefire, brokered in 2024, required Hezbollah to withdraw fighters and arms from southern Lebanon—a region it has controlled for decades. Yet, the group’s secretary-general, Naim Qassem, has resisted full disarmament, leaving the government with limited leverage.

Historical Context of Disarmament Efforts

Lebanon’s path toward disarmament has been shaped by key agreements. The Taif Agreement of 1989 mandated the dissolution of all militias, including Hezbollah, and established a power-sharing framework among Lebanon’s diverse sects. However, Hezbollah framed itself as a resistance movement against Israeli occupation, preserving its weapons. Israel’s 18-year presence in southern Lebanon ended in 2000, but territorial disputes persisted. The UN Resolution 1701, passed in 2006, called for Hezbollah’s disarmament but has yet to be fully implemented.

Recent Escalation and Diplomatic Moves

Following a Feb 2025 strike that killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on Israel. The group cited retaliation for his death and the Israeli bombings during the ceasefire. Israel responded with air strikes and a renewed ground invasion, killing over 300 Lebanese in a single day. This prompted Aoun to propose direct talks with Israel, a bold move for two nations with no formal recognition. A ambassadors’ meeting in Washington, set for Tuesday, aims to address the ceasefire, though Lebanon’s influence over Hezbollah remains constrained.

The Challenge of Peace

With Hezbollah entrenched in both political and military spheres, Lebanon’s government faces a daunting task. The group’s refusal to negotiate nationwide disarmament leaves Aoun with few options. As Israeli drones continue to buzz over Beirut, the question lingers: can lasting peace be achieved, or will the country be drawn into yet another cycle of conflict?

Joseph Rodriguez

Writer & Blogger

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