London Mayoral Race: Khan Positioned for Fourth Term Amid Green Party Momentum
Traveloasisspot.com – A fresh survey indicates that Sir Sadiq Khan stands in strong position to secure a fourth term as Mayor of London, even as the Green Party experiences notable growth in voter support across the capital. The research, conducted by Savanta for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London, reveals Labour maintaining a commanding lead over rival political groups in the upcoming mayoral contest.
According to the findings, the Labour Party commands 33% of voter intention, substantially outpacing competitors. The Conservative Party and Reform UK each hold 18% of the vote, while the Green Party has climbed to 17%. The Liberal Democrats trail at 9%, with remaining candidates collectively securing 6% of support.
Regional Breakdown and Second Preferences
Dr Eoghan Kelly, a postdoctoral researcher specializing in British politics at QMUL, noted that these figures suggest a Labour victory once second preferences are tallied. The Labour candidate would capture 40% of votes in Inner London—more than twice the share of any other contender—while maintaining a 29% lead in Outer London, ahead of both Nigel Farage’s Reform movement and the Conservatives, each sitting at 19%.
“Much will depend on who the mayoral candidates are,” Dr Kelly observed. “Of the major parties, only Reform has named a candidate so far.”
The researcher further commented that Laila Cunningham’s campaign has yet to achieve significant breakthrough momentum, with Reform’s support declining by one percentage point since their previous survey.
Khan’s Potential Candidacy Timeline
In February, Sir Sadiq provided his clearest indication yet that he might pursue a fourth term in City Hall during the 2028 election. Declaring that he would not return to Parliament, he remarked regarding the mayoral contest: “Once the election begins, we know who the candidates are, I will have a strategy to deal with both Count Binface and Reform.”
More recently, the Mayor clarified that his decision regarding re-election would come in the following year. During the annual State of London debate, he stated: “I will let you know as soon as I’ve decided – at the same time I make it in every cycle, which is probably year three.”
Should Khan choose not to run again, potential Labour candidates could include Brent East MP Dawn Butler, Justice Secretary and Tottenham MP David Lammy, and Tooting MP Rosena Allin-Khan.
Green Party Surge and Assembly Implications
The poll reveals significant implications beyond the mayoral race. Zack Polanski’s Green Party could secure 13 seats in London during the next general election, while Labour would drop from 59 to 28 seats. Nigel Farage’s Reform movement would gain 11 seats.
In a hypothetical London Assembly election held immediately, Labour would lead with 31%, followed by the Greens at 20%—a substantial jump following their May local election success. The Conservatives would hold 18%, Reform 16%, the Liberal Democrats 10%, and other parties 4%.
“The Greens finishing second would be an enormous achievement for Polanski’s party,” Dr Kelly remarked. “All their seats are expected to come on the list.”
Using his DevolvedElections.co.uk projection model, Dr Kelly suggests this scenario would result in Labour retaining 11 Assembly seats, the Greens gaining up to five, the Conservatives four, Reform three, and the Liberal Democrats two.
Dr Kelly highlighted that Reform remains competitive in Bexley & Bromley and Havering & Redbridge constituencies. Securing either would represent the first time a party outside Labour, the Conservatives, and the Liberal Democrats has won a constituency seat.
The London Assembly comprises fourteen constituency members elected through first-past-the-post voting, alongside eleven London-wide list members chosen through proportional representation.
The Savanta survey interviewed 1,038 adult Londoners online between June 30 and July 8, with results weighted to reflect demographic accuracy.
