Experts Dispute US Claim of Iran’s Responsibility in Lamerd Strike
On the opening day of the war, a missile attack in Lamerd, southern Iran, claimed 21 lives, including four children, according to official reports. However, multiple weapons experts have raised questions about the US assertion that Iran was responsible for the incident. Their analysis, based on footage and technical details, challenges the attribution of the strike to an Iranian missile.
Initial Reports and Centcom’s Denial
BBC Verify first reported on the attack on 28 March, citing experts who suggested the missile used was a US Precision Strike Missile (PrSM). The US Central Command (Centcom) initially did not comment on the report but later issued a statement on 31 March. The statement claimed the footage aligned with an Iranian Hoveyzeh cruise missile, stating,
“US forces do not target civilians, unlike the Iranian regime which has attacked civilian locations in neighboring countries more than 300 times.”
Centcom remained firm in its stance when BBC Verify revisited the case with expert findings. The command said it had “nothing to add” to its original claim. The verified CCTV footage, authenticated by BBC Verify, showed a munition detonating above a residential zone in Lamerd. Experts noted the mid-air explosion, which they linked to the PrSM’s airburst capability, a feature designed to scatter debris over a broader area.
Technical Evidence Contradicts Centcom’s Claim
Weapons analysts highlighted key differences between the PrSM and the Hoveyzeh missile. Amael Kotlarski of Janes defense intelligence pointed out the Hoveyzeh’s visible belly-mounted turbojet and mid-body wings, stating,
“Crucially, no matter the viewing angle, the wings and turbo jet would be clearly visible. None of these elements appear in the footage.”
Another expert from McKenzie Intelligence noted the absence of wings or external engines in the video, arguing the missile’s design matched the PrSM. They emphasized,
“The canard fins, characteristic of a PrSM, are visible in the footage. The two missiles are vastly different in appearance.”
Trevor Ball of Bellingcat added that the missile’s length was “much more consistent with the PrSM” than the Hoveyzeh. He explained,
“The Hoveyzeh’s silhouette changes depending on the angle, with a visible engine at certain perspectives.”
Broader Context of the Conflict
On the same day, nearly 400km east, strikes targeted a school and a military base in Minab, killing 168 people. Expert video analysis suggested a US Tomahawk missile was involved. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed the incident was under review, asserting,
“US forces never target civilian targets.”
US Navy Captain Tim Hawkins stated in a recent statement,
“After reviewing the reports, Centcom has confirmed the accusations are false. US forces did not launch strikes into Lamerd or within 30 miles during the conflict’s first day. The munition in the video appears to be twice as long, matching the Hoveyzeh’s dimensions.”
