Is Britain ungovernable?
Is Britain ungovernable – In the 1990s, Anthony Seldon began his project to document the last eight British prime ministers, which was initially a substantial yet systematic undertaking. At that time, the occupants of 10 Downing Street typically held office for several years, allowing him to closely observe their governance styles and the impact they had on national priorities. However, the past decade has disrupted this pattern, with political leadership cycles becoming increasingly erratic. Seldon now worries that his work might not keep pace with the rapid changes unfolding in British politics, as the nation grapples with its most unstable leadership transition in recent memory.
Starmer’s Premiership Under Threat
Keir Starmer’s victory in the 2024 general election was widely seen as a signal of political stability after years of Conservative Party turmoil. The previous government had undergone three leadership changes within a single year, creating a sense of unpredictability that many hoped would be resolved under Starmer’s Labour Party. With a landslide parliamentary majority and a pledge to deliver a “decade of national renewal,” Starmer was positioned as a unifying figure. Yet, less than two years into his tenure, the seeds of doubt have begun to take root. Recent local elections in England, Scotland, and Wales saw voters decisively reject Labour candidates, raising questions about the party’s ability to maintain its mandate. Seldon, who has chronicled the careers of each leader, suggests that Starmer may soon face a similar fate, with his colleagues considering a challenge to his leadership.
“I’ll be on to ‘Angela Rayner at Number 10’ before too long,” Seldon sighed in an interview with CNN, referring to the Labour lawmaker who has emerged as a potential rival to Starmer. This remark underscores the perception that British politics has entered a phase of constant upheaval, where even the most promising leaders are not immune to scrutiny.
Seldon’s upcoming biography of Rishi Sunak, set for release in August, adds to the speculation about the country’s political trajectory. If the publication coincides with a new prime minister being named, it could mark the sixth leadership change in seven years—a stark contrast to the relative calm of the 1990s. The historian’s concerns are not unfounded; the frequent turnover in power has led many to wonder whether the UK is losing its capacity to govern effectively.
A Nation in Turmoil
Britain’s challenges extend beyond the political sphere, rooted in economic and social struggles that have persisted for years. The 2008 financial crisis left the country with lingering scars, and real wages have remained largely stagnant since then. While the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine briefly spurred wage increases, the overall trend suggests a lack of sustained growth. Meanwhile, the nation’s exit from the European Union is estimated to have reduced GDP per capita by up to 8%, further complicating efforts to restore prosperity. Productivity growth remains sluggish, and government debt has surged, pushing UK bonds to the highest yields among G7 nations. Even industrial electricity costs in the UK are out of step with international standards, highlighting the economic strain on both businesses and households.
The electoral system, which has long functioned as a stable framework for governance, is now showing signs of fatigue. The first-past-the-post model thrived in an era of two dominant parties: Labour and the Conservatives. For over a century, this dynamic shaped British politics, ensuring clear lines of authority. But the decline of this duopoly has fragmented the political landscape, transforming it into a five-way contest in England and a six-way struggle in Scotland and Wales. The Liberal Democrats, Greens, Reform UK, and nationalist parties have all carved out space, creating a patchwork of competing ideologies. This shift has made it harder for any single leader to consolidate power, as the traditional center-right and center-left blocs now face a more diverse array of challengers.
Comparisons to American Leadership
When analyzing the recent leadership changes, Seldon draws parallels to American presidents, a trend he believes has become more pronounced in the UK. Boris Johnson, he notes, embodied a Rooseveltian approach—ambitious yet inconsistent in execution. His tenure was marked by grandiose rhetoric and a tendency to prioritize image over substance, leaving a trail of policy missteps. Liz Truss, in contrast, was described as a Reaganite in her economic ideology, but her brief 49-day stint as prime minister revealed the dangers of ideological extremes. Her unfunded tax-cut plan in 2022 sent shockwaves through financial markets, nearly triggering a crisis. The Conservative Party’s swift decision to remove her from power highlighted the fragility of the current system.
Rishi Sunak, Seldon argues, represents a different kind of challenge. While he embraced a Hooverite philosophy of fiscal restraint, the context in which he took office—after the chaos of Truss’s leadership—meant his policies were seen as reactive rather than transformative. The UK’s disillusionment with the Conservatives, compounded by the economic fallout from Brexit, made it difficult for Sunak to secure a strong mandate in the 2024 election. Starmer’s success, however, seems to have broken this cycle, though his leadership style is more personality-driven than project-based. Seldon likened Starmer to Jimmy Carter, a leader known for his steady yet unremarkable approach, suggesting that the current prime minister may not have the same defining legacy as his predecessors.
Despite these challenges, Seldon remains optimistic about the UK’s governance capabilities. “Britain is categorically not ungovernable, although some recent prime ministers have tried darn hard to make it so,” he told CNN. The historian’s perspective offers a counterpoint to the growing sense of political paralysis. While the UK’s system is under pressure, it is not inherently flawed. The key lies in how leaders navigate the complexities of a divided electorate and a fragile economy. Starmer’s ability to maintain unity within Labour could be the decisive factor, or his leadership may become the next chapter in a long line of turbulent transitions.
